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Geopolitical Threat Monitors

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Large Scale Aggression
When small scale violence grows to encompass much of a society -- or multiple societies -- it can usually be called war. But war, increasingly, takes a variety of forms, including traditional warfare tactics of guns, bombs, tanks, and missiles, to what is called "gray zone" or "hybrid warfare" that includes information warfare, lawfare, and other "soft" strategies, along with terrorism, which deliberately targets civilians for the purpose of instilling fear and demoralization.

Related Folders
Preventing and Defending Against Large-Scale Violence
In extreme cases, political tensions can escalate to the point where you have large-scale violence (such as the troubles in Northern Ireland or the United States in the 1960s. Still worse is violence that escalates into civil war.

Colleague Activities
The Global State of Democracy Initiative
This Initiative provides evidence-based, balanced analysis and data on the state and quality of democracy for 173 countries, producing a variety of indices and an annual report.

Colleague Activities
The Global Zeitenwende: How to Avoid a New Cold War in a Multipolar Era
The world is facing an epochal tectonic shift. Russia's war against Ukraine has has ended an era. In this new multipolar world, different countries and models of government are competing for power and influence.

Colleague Activities
Carnegie Europe
Insightful analysis from some of Europed keenest international affair observers compiled by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

News and Opinion
The Global Zeitenwende -- How to Avoid a New Cold War in a Multipolar Era
For those of us who lived through the first Cold War, there are few (if any) priorities more important than avoiding another Cold War. Ideas on how to do this.

News and Opinion
How Democracy Can Win
From Samantha Powers, thoughtful reflections on what democratic societies can do to defend themselves against increasingly aggressive authoritarian regimes.

News and Opinion
Thinking the Unthinkable
For a time when we prefer not to even think about the possibility of a global military conflagration, tough questions that, like it or not, demand consideration.

News and Opinion
The World May Be Entering a Much Bloodier Era
News that our gut level impression that the world is rapidly spinning out of control is, unfortunately, backed up by solid data.

News and Opinion
U.S. Shrugs as World War III Approaches
A quick summary of the report of the Commission on the National Defense Strategy -- a politically neglected, but critically important, warning about the West's declining ability to deter war and defend itself.

News and Opinion
Biological warfare is a real threat. How can we deter it?
A reminder that biological warfare deserves a prominent place at the top of our mega-worry list -- a worry that really ought to be getting a lot more attention.

News and Opinion
The Future of Warfare is Remote Controlled
The description of how cheap drones are radically altering the nature of war and the global military balance in ways that are extremely dangerous and hard to predict.

News and Opinion
A Russia-NATO War Would Look Nothing Like Ukraine
As Tolstoy famously said, "you may not be interested in war but war is interested in you." If we want to prevent war, we had better pay attention to the ways in which it might happen.

News and Opinion
How Chinese drones could defeat America
In the wake of Ukraine's surprise attack on the Russian Air Force, worrisome speculation about how China could attack the United States in much the same way.

News and Opinion
More conflict in 2024 'than any year since Second World War'
Hard data supporting that which should be self-evident to any observer of current events, the forces taking us away from a peaceful world are stronger now than they have been at any time since the world wars of the 20th century.